Pheno-hunt planner
How many seeds to pop to find at least one 1-in-N keeper with the confidence you want.
Your hunt
Your best guess at how rare the keeper is
%
%
Seeds to pop
Seeds
35
at 85% germination
Plants to grow out
29
females, if the trait is female-only
For regular (non-feminized) seed, roughly half the plants are male; double the seed count to keep the same number of females.
Chance of at least one 1-in-10
- 5 plants41%
- 10 plants65.1%
- 20 plants87.8%
- 29 plants95.3%
- 30 plants95.8%
- 50 plants99.5%
- 100 plants100%
Assumes each plant independently has a 1-in-N chance. Real segregation ratios depend on the parents; a trait controlled by several genes can be much rarer than it looks.
How this is calculated
n = ln(1 − p) / ln(1 − 1/N); seeds = n / germination rate
P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − 1/N)^n